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Sentistocks predicting stock index price trends

For more than a year we have been publishing the results of our Bitcoin (BTC) price trend forecasts on our website and on social media (Facebook and Twitter).

Not only Bitcoin

Recently, we have tested the prediction effectiveness of financial instruments other than BTC. First, the effectiveness of the Sentistocks tool was tested for leading stock market indexes. The tests covered the period May-September 2021 and focused on predicting the change in trend of average close prices over a 24-hour interval for the following indexes: SP&500, DAX, DJI, NASDAQ100, NIKKEI225, FTSE250.

Sentistocks – test results

The tests turned out to be very promising. The effectiveness rate of predicting the change of trends of the average close prices for all the indexes tested exceeded the level of 70%. Details are presented in the charts below.

Forecasting tools

The tests were performed solely on the basis of the Sentistocks Model developed by us. This model uses a proprietary Sentimenti tool that measures the intensity of 8 basic emotions and arousal in texts (mentions) published in social media in correlation with stock market data.

The data presented by Sentimenti neither in whole nor in part constitute a “recommendation” within the meaning of the provisions of the Act of 29 July 2005 on trading in financial instruments or the Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council (EU) No 596/2014 of 16 April 2014. on market abuse (Market Abuse Regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulations (EU) 2017/565 of 25 April 2016 supplementing Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards organisational requirements and operating conditions for investment firms and defined terms for the purposes of that Directive. The contents do not meet the requirements for recommendations within the meaning of the above- mentioned Act, inter alia, they do not contain a specific valuation of any financial instrument, are not based on any valuation method and do not specify investment risk.