85% of effectiveness in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trends? It’s possible.
Since October 2020 we have been testing prediction models of average BTC price in the time intervals of 8 hours,
4 hours and 1 hour. Today we present the results of prediction effectiveness for the 1 hour model. The tests were
conducted in November and December 2020. The measurements of predictions effectiveness were made at 15:00 UTC
and covered the last 24 hours each time.
The effectiveness of 1 hour prediction reached 85.8% in November and 85.0% in December.
The minimum (acceptable) level of monthly prediction effectiveness was 70%. Across November and December
there were only 5 cases when avarage prediction effectiveness dropped below the required minimum of 70%.
On the other hand in that exact time, the total number of cases exceeding 90% of effectiveness was 26 (!).